Sunday, November 4, 2012
Three scenarios for the U.S. presidential election results
U.S. presidential election into a state of uncertainty is like an equation with many unknowns by chance elected by both Obama and Romney are equal.
Mr. Obama went to inspect the consequences of super typhoon Sandy
And forecasters issued a few scenarios did not get any good.
Only 2 days left until the presidential election, but the U.S. has not gone away shocked after super typhoon Sandy. In the words of humor is making fun of the New York Times, storm Sandy did American democracy became "not manageable". Now, Sandy has passed away but millions of Americans are still busy with the disaster recovery should be considered presidential election is a minor problem. They do not have the time necessary to think about the election.
The winner is not who obtained the most votes.
This first scenario might seem paradoxical but perfectly true - the winner can not the candidates get the most votes is the candidate obtained the largest number of electoral votes. Currently, this risk is threatening Republican candidate Romney because the Democratic candidate Obama has a better chance to win 270 electoral votes - the minimum number of votes needed to win the election in a total of 538 electoral .
According to the U.S. media, Obama is now almost took to make the support of 243 electoral votes, just 27 more people are elected. But Mr Romney just won the support of 206 electors, missing to 64 people. So prospects happen scenario "winner but gained less votes but won the election, so get more electoral votes than" analysts assess is from 10 to 15%, even from 30 to 35%.
According to analysts, this happens if the voters against Obama in the southern United States put a vote for Romney, and the votes of the Democratic voters are not many but enough to Obama win the key state of Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
Two candidates received the same number of electoral votes
But what would happen if two applicants have obtained the same number of electoral votes - 269 votes? Historically the United States has several times occurred a similar situation in 1800, 1824 and 1876. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives must be held to vote to decide the winning candidate.
However, the problem is not as simple as many people think. Indeed, if two candidates Obama and Romney obtained an equal number of electoral votes, the next will be a stressful process recount, is the persistent legal battles, would be the "lure" of voters running to his side, will put pressure on the House of Representatives and many other sophisticated tricks.
Not in vain that the Board advise the 2 Obama's campaign and Romney is preparing the outstanding teams of lawyers to respond to the legal battle may occur.
At that time, the nation will fall into the "hang" during the 11 weeks before the inauguration of the new President (as usual on 20 - 1 - 2013), who are elected will also chipped previous reputation galaxy table.
President and Vice President of two different parties
If the recount does not alter the rate of 269-269 and if no electors to defect to the other side, under the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the presidential vote will transfer into the hands of the House of Representatives.
Here, each state corresponds to one vote. Correlation with the current force in favor of the Republicans, the House will certainly elect Romney president candidate. But Vice-President is elected by the Senate. With the majority of the Democrats, the Senate will certainly elect incumbent Vice President John Biden Democratic Vice President.
If so, it's hard to imagine the state of irony in American politics, as President and Vice President belonged to two opposing parties. Activities of the U.S. government very likely will be disorder - which is not the desired one.
- Super typhoon Sandy upset presidential election campaign in the United States. However, most analysts that Sandy gave Obama little advantage. It was said that, super typhoon Sandy is "God's gift" for Obama because the nation often see firsthand Obama is trying his best to help the victims and prevent the terrible consequences caused by the storm.
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